When India pivoted sharply towards Russian crude in the aftermath of the Ukraine war, it was hailed as a strategic masterstroke. Cheap oil, energy security, and billions saved — or so the headlines went. But behind the narrative of “national gain” lies a harsher truth: the biggest winners are not the Indian people, but two boardrooms. And the price of this gamble is being paid not by billionaires, but by millions of workers across India’s small towns.
The Oil Gamble That Rewired India’s Trade
As Western buyers turned away from Russian oil, India emerged as a surprise lifeline for Moscow. Once a negligible buyer, India now sources nearly 40% of its crude imports from Russia. On the surface, it looks like smart economics.
But look closer: more than half of this trade is dominated by Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy. Reliance, with its Jamnagar refinery — the world’s largest — imports hundreds of thousands of barrels daily. Nayara, with ownership ties to Russia’s Rosneft and Adani-linked entities, is the other major gainer.
Their model is simple yet lucrative: buy discounted Russian crude, refine it in India, and export petroleum products at global market rates. The margin spread is massive. Profits have soared.
Meanwhile, state refiners — bound by domestic price controls and policy diktats — see little of this upside. And Indian consumers? For them, cheap Russian oil translates into almost no direct benefit.
The Illusion of a National Windfall
Supporters of the Russian oil pivot claim India has “saved billions.” But when stripped of optics, the net annual benefit is just $2.5 billion — less than 0.1% of GDP.
Why so little?
Discounts have narrowed as more buyers return to Russian oil.
Shipping and insurance premiums have climbed.
Russian crude quality forces expensive blending with other grades.
The result? The lion’s share of value flows to a handful of private refiners. For the country at large, the so-called “oil dividend” is barely perceptible.
America Strikes Back
Washington has not looked kindly on India’s expanding trade with Moscow. In a retaliatory move, the U.S. — still India’s largest export market — has imposed a 50% tariff on $48 billion worth of Indian goods.
The sectors hit hardest are India’s labour-intensive, low-margin industries:
Textiles in Tiruppur, Karur, and Surat.
Gems and jewellery in Surat and Mumbai.
Leather in Chennai and Kanpur.
Seafood from Andhra and Kerala.
Auto-parts, footwear, and handicrafts.
These industries are not just export engines; they are employment lifelines for millions. Operating on wafer-thin 5–7% margins, they simply cannot survive a 50% tariff shock. Orders are drying up, exporters warn of mass layoffs, and analysts predict job losses running into the lakhs.
Boardrooms vs. Shop Floors
In Mumbai’s corporate towers, the Russian oil strategy looks like a triumph. Reliance and Nayara are booking record profits and expanding global clout.
But on the ground, in Tiruppur’s garment factories and Surat’s diamond workshops, the story is different. Exporters face cancelled contracts. Workers face unpaid wages. Families face mounting debt.
The stark divide is clear:
Winners: Reliance, Nayara, Ambani, Adani.
Losers: Small manufacturers, exporters, workers — particularly in Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh.
This is not a story of wealth creation. It is one of wealth concentration.
The Geopolitical Irony
The irony is impossible to ignore. India’s elites enjoy the benefits of Russian crude, while America’s retaliation cripples its small-scale industries. The burden of global geopolitics, once again, falls not on the powerful, but on the powerless.
A garment worker in Tiruppur has no stake in discounted Russian oil. A diamond polisher in Surat does not share in Ambani’s profits. For them, geopolitics translates into closed order books and empty kitchens.
The Bigger Question
India’s Russian oil gamble exposes a deeper question for economic strategy: Who is foreign policy really serving?
Is it:
Protecting national interests?
Shielding the average citizen from global shocks?
Or reinforcing the dominance of a few billionaire-led conglomerates?
For now, the evidence points to the latter.
A Bargain That Became Betrayal
India was told Russian oil was a bargain. But for millions of workers, it has become a betrayal. What began as an energy hedge has morphed into a wealth transfer — from the shop floors of small-town India to the boardrooms of billionaires.
Ambani and Adani-linked companies emerge untouchable. Small exporters face an existential crisis. And India’s economic backbone — its labour-intensive industries — is being quietly shattered under the weight of geopolitical crossfire.
This is the untold cost of India’s oil gamble: a short-term profit for the few, a long-term blow for the many.GBN
