Gold has long been seen as the ultimate safe haven — a refuge when markets turn volatile, currencies wobble, and geopolitics flare up. But according to Sankaran Naren, Chief Investment Officer of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company, the time to ride the gold wave may be behind us.
Speaking with the seasoned pragmatism that has made him one of India’s most respected fund managers, Naren cautions investors against getting carried away by gold’s recent outperformance. “When an asset class has done extremely well, be very careful,” he says, summing up a philosophy rooted in contrarian investing and disciplined asset allocation.
Over the last few years, gold and silver have rallied strongly amid inflation fears, global uncertainty, and a rush toward tangible assets. But Naren, who manages over ₹10 lakh crore in assets, believes investors should resist the urge to chase past returns. Instead, he emphasizes the need to rebalance portfolios and look for undervalued opportunities in sectors that are currently out of favour.
“Markets always move in cycles,” Naren notes. “Gold has had its run. The time to invest was when sentiment was negative and prices were subdued. Now, investors should turn their attention to areas where pessimism prevails — that’s where long-term value is created.”
The remarks come at a time when gold prices have plateaued after a strong multi-year rally. With inflation cooling and central banks signalling rate stability, the factors that supported gold’s rise are beginning to wane. Meanwhile, equity markets — particularly in emerging sectors such as manufacturing, energy transition, and domestic consumption — are showing structural resilience.
Naren’s message is consistent with his long-standing contrarian approach: buy when there’s fear, sell when there’s euphoria. It’s a strategy that has defined his investment career and shaped ICICI Prudential’s asset allocation framework.
From an asset management standpoint, Naren’s advice underscores the importance of discipline over emotion — of maintaining a balanced mix across equities, fixed income, and alternative assets, rather than chasing trends.
As India’s economic fundamentals strengthen and domestic participation in capital markets deepens, gold’s traditional role as a defensive hedge may continue to shrink in relative importance.
Still, Naren isn’t writing off gold entirely. His message is one of timing and proportion — not rejection. For investors, the takeaway is clear: the shine of gold may still hold, but blind faith in its endless rally could be a costly mistake.
Gold’s decline in allure is a reminder that markets reward patience and prudence. In an age of algorithmic trading and headline-driven investing, voices like Naren’s calm, analytical, and rooted in cyclical understanding remind us that wisdom often lies in restraint, not reaction.
