Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu lamented over the south states witnessing declining population, even as he asked people to have bigger families. “We are already in deficit. Having less than two children leads to the rapid decline of the young population,” he lamented, reflecting a growing concern among leaders in South India. Tamilnadu’s Chief Minister also reflected his concerns about this.
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
As the population conversation intensifies, the data tells a revealing story.According to the estimates available from a 2020 report by Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, southern states are seeing lower fertility rates compared to northern states. For example, Total Fertility Rate(TFR) of Andhra Pradesh reached 2.1 in the year 2004 – long before most states, except Uttar Pradesh, which is supposed to reach that level only in 2024. Compared with this, many southern states have fertility rates much below the national average: while the TFR in Tamil Nadu is around 1.6 and Kerala is at 1.5
Population Growth Projections
The broader implications of these trends are stark. From 2011 to 2036, India’s total population is expected to increase by 31.1 crore, with nearly half of this growth concentrated in a handful of northern states—Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh. Southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu are projected to contribute only 2.9 crore, or about 9%, to this increase.
But, then, there is the fast-ageing population. A life expectancy increasing to 73 and a fertility rate declining to 2.3 make people over 60 years the likely constituencies of nearly half of India’s population, which will rise from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036-particularly in the southern states such as Kerala where this shift is most marked.
Constitutional Considerations: Identity and Representation
The implications of these demographic shifts extend into the realm of governance and electoral representation. Article 82 of the Indian Constitution mandates periodic delimitation of constituencies based on population data. As southern states grapple with lower growth rates, there are concerns that they could lose parliamentary representation compared to the north. This potential disenfranchisement could exacerbate existing inequalities and shift political power further toward populous northern states.
Political Implications of Delimitation
1. Higher Political Power for the Northern States: Population increase in northern states will add to the Lok Sabha seats for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, thus giving further strength to the political power of these states. This will overemphasize the concentration of both resources and attention through these states.
2. Diminished Influence for Southern States: As southern states experience stagnating or declining populations, they may face a reduction in their share of Lok Sabha seats. This could weaken their influence in national policy-making, leading to a potential neglect of regional issues that are crucial for their development.
3. Electoral Strategy: Political parties in the south might need to recalibrate their strategies to maintain relevance. This could include forging alliances with parties in the north or focusing on regional issues that resonate with the electorate, thereby amplifying their voice despite potentially fewer seats.
4. Voter Mobilization: The looming threat of reduced representation could serve as a rallying point for southern states to mobilize voters around the importance of maintaining political strength. This might involve campaigns emphasizing the need for unity among southern states to prevent marginalization.
Social and Economic Implications for South India
The social and economic ramifications of this demographic dividend are profound:
1.Social Implications: An ageing population leads to higher healthcare costs and greater demand for elderly support, potentially straining state resources. South India, with its higher life expectancy compared to the North, will face a growing elderly population, further intensifying these challenges. However, the region’s future also holds a rising dependency ratio, as the number of young people available to support the elderly declines. This demographic shift could burden the younger workforce, affecting economic productivity and social structures. Additionally, changes in family dynamics may reduce the tradition of multigenerational living, increasing reliance on formal care systems.
2.Economic Implications : As the younger workforce in the South declines, there may be increased migration from North India to fill labour gaps, particularly in the unorganized sector. Though migrants add to the state’s economy through labour, they are mostly concentrated in unorganised sectors, which leads to non-payment of taxes, hence contributing more pressure on public resources without the corresponding tax revenues. Such situations reduce the investment capabilities of the government on capital expenditure since more money is needed for revenue expenditure in support of an ageing population and an expanding informal workforce.
As discussions around population policies evolve, the question remains: can incentivizing families to have more children effectively counteract these demographic trends? Historical evidence suggests that such pro-natalist policies have seen limited success. Social demographers argue that factors like economic stability, educational attainment, and gender equality play a more crucial role in fertility decisions.
As India stands at the doorsteps of demographic transformation being at the divergent population trends between the north and south pose both challenges and opportunities. And policymakers must understand all these seas of change with foresight that the changing face of demographics does not entrenched inequality but provides a balanced and equitable growth trajectory for the whole nation.
