Donald Trump: A New Phase in Indo-U.S. Relations
An unknown new chapter in India-U.S. relations has begun with Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. election. The current concern is how India will react to these shifting conditions as it looks to strike a balance between maintaining its partnership with the US and overcoming the difficulties posed by Trump’s frequently combative and short-term-focused tactics.
Trump’s “America First” philosophy is more likely to taint US-India ties in ways that will hinder India’s capacity for diplomacy. Collaborations in defence and technology are more likely to be the main axis, but a mercantilist perspective could lead to a greater tendency for zero-sum policies, particularly in the context of trade.
With $118.3 billion in bilateral trade, the US is India’s second-largest trading partner. More importantly, though, and much to Donald Trump’s dismay, the United States is one of India’s top five trading partners, $36.74 billion trade surplus tilted in favour of India. So that’s a significant point of contention. Trump, being a sceptic of trade deficits, would probably push for greater access into India markets for U.S. goods and services, but as the party that needs this surplus to keep its economy going, India is going to have a delicate issue on its hands as it balances U.S. trade demands with its own economic interests.
In areas such as semiconductor manufacturing, where India has begun making incursions, Trump may be more aggressive and will view any expansion in the capabilities of India as a direct encroachment on U.S. industries.India will have to tread carefully as it seeks to create an impression that it is an integral part of global supply chains — particularly in relation to China.
A Strong Defense Partnership, but with Trump’s Own Twist
Defense cooperation seems to be one of the pillars of the US-India relations despite friction in most other areas. During the Trump presidency, the US is likely to continue to provide encouragement to India for its defense modernization process especially in the face of growing competition with China. During his first term, Trump relaunched the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), as India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia seem to have come together in an informal strategic alliance to respond to China’s expansive regional plans. In his second term, Trump might further ask for defense ties that are closer than ever before, including faster arms sales, joint exercises, and intelligence sharing.
The President-elect stated that this is indeed an opportunity for him to build on his past history with India by expanding trade, opening more technology for Indian companies to be allowed, and making more U.S. military hardware available for Indian defence forces. He will assume where negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement had been taken up – an agreement intense negotiation ensued in 2019-2020 but lost their power before being finalized and which former President Joe Biden shows no interest in carrying forward.
But with Trump, the approach is transactional, and these defense deals will be one for the immediate, concrete benefits to the U.S.-more direct military sales- aka drones, fancy weaponry-said Dasgupta, instead of long-term, cooperative defense technology projects like the iCET (India-U.S. Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies). India would be forced to compromise on more “quid pro quo” arms deals while having to sacrifice the much-desired long-term strategic collaboration.
Trade Relations: Navigating the Trumpian Trade War
Trade Relations between the US and India under Trump will emerge as a main battleground. As mentioned above, India has a $36.74 billion surplus with regard to trading with the US. Therefore, this country stands as one of the few that the US has been interested in with regard to a favourable balance of trade in its account. The issue of trade imbalance has always been an important campaign issue for Trump and will certainly focus attention upon this area in a second term. During his first term, Trump famously branded India the “tariff king” and withdrew it from the U.S.’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP)—a program that allowed tariff-free access to exporters from developing countries. If Trump is re-elected, it’s likely that he will reintroduce pressure on India to open its markets further, and could push for harsher measures to address what he views as unfair trade practices.
Under Trump a new trade deal between the U.S. and India may resurface but it will focus on short-term gains for the U.S.-reduction in the trade deficit-and better access to the U.S. market for firms in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and technology. This could create a more adversarial trade relationship, with India having to choose whether she would have better interests in deeper economic ties with the United States or face the confines of Donald Trump’s trade policies.
India will have to make great effort to get those problems sorted out and ensure that it remains positive for both of them while, in the other areas like technology, services, and defense, it has enough space for cooperation.
Immigration: A Challenge for Indian Professionals
Probably the biggest grey area for India under Trump’s reign would be immigration, particularly the H1-B visa programme, which has benefitted India’s skilled workers for so long. Tough stand on immigration was a considerable part of Trump’s first term, and there is every indication he will be more harsh in his second term. In reality, the easier approach may become increasingly tough for the Indian IT worker or any other kind of professional interested in doing work in the U.S., as tougher action on immigration is expected in this scenario.
A hardline approach by Trump on immigration could alienate many in the Indian diaspora, who have been instrumental in strengthening U.S.-India ties. Indian policymakers may have to be prepared for a harder dialogue on immigration while simultaneously finding alternative routes of cooperation in education and research.
China and Russia: A Complicated Geopolitical Landscape
Trump’s victory would also make it even more complicated for India to handle both China and Russia-two countries with which India has complicated and sometimes contradictory relationships. On China, Trump’s erratic and unpredictable stance had already marked his foreign policy agenda in the form of trade wars, tariffs, and technological competition setting up a future world order. India should gain from the tensions unleashed between Washington and Beijing as New Delhi attempts to find a foothold in the region as an alternative supplier in critical areas of technology and manufacturing.
A close relationship with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would further muddy the waters with Donald Trump at the helm. New Delhi has already caught flak from the West for continuing to buy Russian oil despite the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Yet, whereas a more vigorous end to the war is touted as something that Trump may pursue, it remains to be seen whether he’d increase pressure on Russia via sanctions or ask India to step up its act on Russian oil imports. India would have to tread carefully on its relation with Russia, particularly as it would have to face American pressures to distance itself from Moscow.
Diplomatic Dynamics: Personal Chemistry and Policy Friction
The personal relationship that Trump will retain with Prime Minister Modi will, above all else, be an important component of U.S.-India ties, even if there are discrepancies in policy. The friendship between Modi and Trump, epitomized in events such as the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston and Trump’s visit to India, might build cooperation in areas where there are disagreements. This personal rapport would help dissipate some of the more controversial issues, such as trade and immigration, keeping the lines of communication open.
Issues over democratic norms, minority rights, and human rights were the major points of contention that had fuelled friction with the Biden administration and would be less of a headache for Indians from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, New Delhi might face less scrutiny on Foreign Contribution Regulation Act as some Republican lawmakers have expressed concern over U.S. NGOs in India. The new government will further be silent about Indo-U.S. relations in public. Trump’s opinion on Khalistani outfits and his strained ties with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau will have less pressure from Washington on India’s diplomatic logjam with Canada over Nijjar’s killing.
However, as transactional as Trump is, personal diplomacy alone might not sufficiently sidestep policy friction. India will have to correlate with the U.S. in a manner that balances pragmatism and long-term strategic interests. It will be tough navigation, particularly if the policy maker pursues more aggressive trade policies or deepens alliances between the United States and countries that would complicate India’s geopolitical positioning.
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Future with Trump at the Helm
The new paradigm presented to India, post-Trump’s electoral victory, is complex, thus challenging its relationship with the United States. Policies of the incoming Trump administration may expose Indo-U.S. relations more to transactional dealings, with a greater focus on immediate outcomes and practical benefits rather than long-term strategic partnerships. Defense cooperation would remain a key area of alignment; however, areas of tension might emerge in the realms of trade, immigration, and even geopolitics related to China and Russia.
India’s diplomatic ability will be tested in this new stage of Indo-U.S. relations, wherein cooperation with the U.S. on defense and technology and security matters will constantly need rebalancing with challenges posed by Trump’s trade policies and global ambitions. The road ahead will be complex because India needs to balance its interests here and beyond in the U.S. to ensure continuing growth and stability in its international relations.
