I have worked on many elections, but this one? This is a thriller… we could make this a Netflix series. The plot, the twists, the surprises, the shocks… are mind-numbing.
Here’s the thing…I have two predictions, completely opposite.
Before polling, based on deep field research and finest data modelling the final report was DMK+ – 175+, AIADMK+ – 50 to 60, TVK – 5 to 10.
After polling, and after having hundreds of conversations in tea shops, car rides, street corners, random chats and most importantly lot of consumption from the social media…now my gut says – DMK+ 120+, AIADMK+ 30+, TVK 70+.
And here’s the honest truth…many times, those conversations are more accurate than any boardroom data.
What I’m seeing / feeling on the ground is surprising.
Tamilaga vetri kalagamalagam isn’t just eating into one vote bank…it’s cutting across multiple segments…
- Women voters from both DMK and AIADMK,
- Youth and first-time voters largely from DMK,
- Anti-DMK voters heavily from AIADMK and NTK
This isn’t a small shift… it’s a deep, widespread disruption.
That line of Vijay, “Give me one chance”… has worked so well that it covered all the flaws, holes, and blunders in TVK’s strategy and campaign over the last 6 months. That 1 line might work miracles, like Jayalalithaa’s “Makkal Theerpu, Magesan Theerpu” when she was arrested for corruption with solid proof, and everyone thought her political career was over.
DMK – Dravida Munnetra Kazhagamam did a lot right… strong schemes like Urimai Thogai, free bus travel, Pudhumai Penn, youth programs like Naan Mudhalvan and Tamil Pudhalvan, and double-digit economic growth…the best in India. Lakhs benefited, solid alliance management (except DMDK), and a very brilliant and effective campaign.
But here’s the big question…Why isn’t all that achievement fully converting into votes? Why didn’t all the beneficiaries vote for DMK?
AIADMK? Let’s be honest…they’re not driving this election, and they’re not in the race for the top two. Vijay kept saying it: “This is between DMK and TVK.” Inside All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)) camp, they are still hoping for a miracle…DMK’s vote will fall sharply, TVK will split it, and ADMK will benefit.
It’s like when two giants fight, someone else hopes to sneak in and take the prize.
And நாம் தமிழர் கட்சி – Naam Tamilar Katchi? Their vote bank shifted to TVK months before the elections. They’ve gone back almost a decade in vote share at around 3%
Tomorrow, I won’t just get results. I will get the answer to something bigger: Are data models right, or the tea shop conversations more accurate? Does science win, or does human connection win?
Just 24 hours to go. Let’s see who was right.
– Samuel Mathew
